NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - A potentially historic drop in violent crimes across the country is sparking optimism in New Orleans heading into the new year.
Data analysis by public safety analyst Jeff Asher reveals a dip of around 13% in crime across 180 cities, with the FBI reporting an 8% decrease in violent crime nationally through September 2023, possibly the largest decline on record.
Deciphering the data is not an exact science.
“If you want to know what the crime trend is you have to use wording and estimative language and incomplete data to guesstimate,” Asher said.
Some residents are noticing a difference, giving them hope for the year ahead.
“You can really see that crime is down. You see the kids running. They are having fun. Everybody is having fun so it’s a beautiful year. It’s going to be a beautiful year,” Dexter Lewis said.
“I feel really positive about 2024. I think not everything is fixed but it’s definitely better than it was two or three years ago,” Elizabeth Ellis said.
“Hopefully it’ll be safer around, even like Uptown, but especially downtown where it’s still iffy to walk around at night or even with friends in the day,” Marbella Maristany said.
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Asher says depending on how people consume information, it may seem like crime is as high as ever.
“We never talk about instances where there were no crimes, there were no robberies yesterday, there were no shootings yesterday. That’s not a story. That’s not something people talk about,” said Asher.
However, in New Orleans, homicides have decreased by about 20% compared to the same period in 2022, according to the Metropolitan Crime Commission.
“‘Were there more antidotes this year that I’ve been exposed to or were there more last year?’ And because you have sort of this ‘present bias,’ you’re more likely to think there’s more of these incidents that you’re dealing with this year. It just makes it very difficult for people to gain an accurate picture of something that’s a little bit difficult to evaluate.”
While the city experienced a surge in murders from 2020 to 2022, reaching over 260 in the latter year, the trend is now on a positive trajectory.
“Still we’re talking about over 190 murders, which, for the city, is a lot of murders. But if you sort of graph it over time, the trend is certainly positive,” Asher said.
Asher’s analysis extends beyond homicides, indicating a decline in aggravated assaults, robberies, and carjackings in 2023.
While the overall crime landscape is showing positive signs, certain crime categories, such as rape and sexual assault, are showing less significant changes. Additionally, auto theft numbers have increased, although Asher suggests that they are on a downward trajectory.
“It’s been a real slog coming back post-pandemic for businesses and people in general. It’s been tough for parents to sort of bridge the gap between their professional and personal lives,” Asher said. “As some of those stresses and as the things that were put on the backburners because of the pandemic start to re-enter everyday life, we’re seeing some of these crime trends, especially in terms of gun violence and murder, return to what they were before the pandemic.”
Despite the strides made, Asher acknowledges the persistent challenges, such as the city’s post-pandemic recovery and a decrease in the number of commissioned officers on the streets, down by about 40 since the beginning of 2023. However, he points out that these challenges are not unique to New Orleans.
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